To ensure the X-Analytics Application remains current and produces reliable outcomes, the X-Analytics Research Team aggregates and analyzes historical and cyber risk intelligence data to calibrate backend variables within X-Analytics.
This update includes:
Threat
Industry Threat Baselines: +6.0% change
The industry threat baselines increased by an average of 6.0% since the last update.
Most notable, Aviation (481,488,492), Wholesale Trade (42), and Utilities (22) have the largest increased in threat activity. However, these industries still do not have a large threat volume.
Finance and Insurance (52), Healthcare and Social Assistance (62), and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (54) continue to have the most significant threat activity. These industries are experiencing high volumes of web application attacks, crimeware (including ransomware), and everything else (unknown) activity.
Denial of Service Attacks, Crimeware (including ransomware), and Web Application Attacks are the top three threat categories (in order of most likely to least likely).
The increase in threat activity is partially related to increases in physical theft and loss, cyber-espionage, and point-of-sale intrusion.
Threat Conclusion: The increase in threat activity will cause an increase in cyber exposure for some customers.
Data Breach Probability
Data Breach Probability Baseline: -7.0% change
Data breach probability baseline decreased by an average of 7.0% since the last update.
This decrease is partially due an increase in human error, malware, and unknown activity.
The average size of data breach is between 100k and 200k records.
Data Breach Conclusion: The decrease in data breach probability will cause a decrease in data breach cyber exposure for some customers.
Business Interruption
Business Interruption (DoS) Probability Baseline: +2.2% change
Business interruption (DoS) probability baseline increased by an average of 2.2% since the last update.
DDoS attacks less than 4-hour durations decreased by an average of 2.3%.
DDoS attacks between 4 hours and 12 hours decreased by an average of 20.1%.
DDoS attacks between 12 hours and 24 hours did not change in probability.
This increase is partially related to an increase in carpet bomb attacks lasting under six hours in duration.
Business Interruption (Other) Probability Baseline: -16.9% change
Business interruption (Other) probability baseline decreased by an average of 16.9% since the last update.
The decrease in probability is partially related to an overall decrease in reported business interruption incidents in January 2024.
Business Interruption Conclusion: The increase in business interruption (DoS) probability and the decrease in business interruption (Other) probability will cause a decrease in business interruption cyber exposure for some customers.
Ransomware
Ransomware Probability Baseline: +1.0% change
Ransomware baseline probability has increased by an average of 1.0% since the last update.
The increase in probability is partially related to an increase in the PowerShell-based attacks.
Ransomware Conclusion: The increase in ransomware probability will cause an increase in ransomware cyber exposure for some customers.
Misappropriation
Misappropriation Probability Baseline: +0.4% change
Misappropriation baseline probability has increased by an average of 0.4% since the last update.
The increase in probability is partially related to an increase in business email compromise and other social engineering tactics.
Misappropriation of Funds - % of Payments Related to Fraud: +0.4% change
The “% of payment transactions related to fraud” value has increased by 0.4% since the last update.
This increase is partially related to Business Email Compromise associated attacks.
Misappropriation Conclusion: The increase in misappropriation probability will cause an increase in misappropriation cyber exposure for some customers, and the increase in "percent of payments related to fraud" will cause an increase in misappropriation of funds cyber exposure for some customers.
Risk Indexes
Risk Index: +55% change for Misuse, Theft, and Skimming
Due to changes in threat volumes, control effectiveness, and other conditions, it is essential we update the risk indexes to prevent an overstatement or understatement of loss probability.
An increase in risk indexes indicates a higher risk is necessary to maintain baseline probability.
In other words, as the risk indexes increase your loss probability should decrease.
Risk Index Conclusion: The increase risk indexes for misuse, theft, and skimming will cause a decrease in loss exposure for data breach and business interruption for some customers.
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